AgriCharts Market Commentary

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.

Corn

Corn futures closed 1 3/4 to 2 cents higher. The weekly EIA report this morning had daily ethanol production at 1.01 million barrels per day last week. It showed ethanol production dropping 17,000 bpd over the week of May 19. Ethanol stocks dropped by 730,000 barrels from the previous week. Every region except the West Coast saw a reduction, with the Midwest losing 474,000 barrels and the Gulf drawn down 340,000 barrels. This is usually indicative of strong export activity. A Reuters survey shows traders expecting USDA to show weekly export sales of .55 to 1.05 MMT. Last week’s result was .873 MMT, down .754 MMT from last year’s 1.627 MMT.

Jul 17 Corn closed at $3.71 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents,

Sep 17 Corn closed at $3.79, up 2 cents,

Dec 17 Corn closed at $3.89 3/4, up 2 cents

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.99 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures closings were unchanged in the front months. July 17 meal was up 10 cents, with soy oil down 6 cents in the front month. Forecasts of rain over the next five days could result in planting delays for some producers in already soaked regions. The national soybean cash price as reported by DTN was $8.8061 on Tuesday night, $1.08 lower than a year ago. That leaves a national basis of -67 3/4 cents, just 2 1/4 cents stronger than last year. Basis has not firmed as much as would usually be seen due to larger carryover stocks and the wall of oncoming supplies from South America. Reuters finds a 150,000 to 650,000 MT spread for soybean export sales in the USDA report tomorrow. Results last week totaled .397 MMT, down .210 MMT from last year’s .607 MMT.

Jul 17 Soybeans closed at $9.48 1/4, unch,

Aug 17 Soybeans closed at $9.50 1/4, unch,

Sep 17 Soybeans closed at $9.47 3/4, down 1/4 cent,

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.55 1/4, down 1/2 cent,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal closed at $306.40, up $0.10,

Jul 17 Soybean Oil closed at $32.28, down $0.06

Wheat

Wheat futures were 2 1/4 to 6 3/4 cents in the green in nearby July at settle. Most contracts are fractionally mixed in the back months. Winter wheat conditions may be 23 points lower than last year by using the Brugler 500 index, but are still 23 points higher than the 5 year average and 20 points above the 10 year average. Correlations between mid-May crop ratings and final US average yield are still weak. SRW 16/17 exports from the EU were at 21.82 MMT through May 23, down 20.88% from that time frame last year. You will recall that they had a much smaller crop last year and have drawn down stockpiles significantly. Reuters shows a 200,000 to 800,000 MT range of estimates for weekly soybean export sales. Sales last week totaled 641,000 MT, up 296,000 MT from last year’s 345,000 MT.

Jul 17 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.32 1/2, up 3 cents,

Jul 17 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.32 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents,

Jul 17 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.61, up 6 3/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures were down 95 cents to $1.40 at settlement. Feeder cattle futures were mostly $2.825 to $2.85 lower with May down 25 cents, as it expires tomorrow and needs to stick close to the Index. The CME feeder cattle index was up 13 cents on May 23, at $143.40. Wholesale beef prices were mixed in the Wednesday afternoon report, with choice boxes up 34 cents averaging $246.08, and select down $1.57, averaging $219.60. Week to date estimated FI slaughter is 346,000 head, up 2,000 head from the previous week and 12,000 head larger than the same week last year. The FCE auction showed cash prices decreasing $2.62 wk/wk to a weighted average price of $132.54 for 1-9 day delivery. Of the 2,684 head offered in this week’s auction, 1,333 were sold. The COF report will be released at 11:00 a.m. CST on Friday with April placements expected at 6.7-6.8% larger than last April and marketings 1.8-2.2% above the previous April. Cattle on feed for May 1 is projected to increase 0.8% over May 2016.

Jun 17 Cattle closed at $122.125, down $0.950,

Aug 17 Cattle closed at $119.925, down $1.400,

Oct 17 Cattle closed at $116.750, down $1.300,

May 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.000, down $0.250

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $148.675, down $2.825

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $148.825, down $2.850

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures closed mixed, from 5 cents higher (June) to 42 cents lower. The CME Lean Hog Index for 5/22 was up another 5 cents to $75.94.The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 44 cents lower in the afternoon report, with an average of $89.86. The loin primal was $2.36 higher and the butt was 15 cents higher, as the picnic, rib, and ham were all lower. The national base hog carcass price was 50 cents lower at $70.71 with a rolling average of $70.77. The WCB was 25 cents lower with IA/MN down 28 cents. WTD estimated FI hog slaughter is 1.322 million head, 8,000 bigger wk/wk, and is 26,000 head above the same time a year ago.

Jun 17 Hogs closed at $80.200, up $0.050,

Jul 17 Hogs closed at $79.850, down $0.175

Aug 17 Hogs closed at $79.850, down $0.050

Cotton

Cotton futures closed higher, up 32 points in the front month and up 72 to 77 points in the back months in a dead cat bounce after a series of down days. The AWP (average world price) through Thursday is 72.44 cents/lb. On Wednesday, China sold 16,100 MT of cotton form state reserves, which was 53.19% of the near 30,000 MT offered. The Cotlook A index for May 23 was 95 points lower at 88.05 cents/lb.

Jul 17 Cotton closed at 77.540, up 32 points,

Oct 17 Cotton closed at 74.500, up 77 points

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 72.850, up 72 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com