Morning Comments; Thursday, July 19th, 2018

Forecasters have revised their El Nino predictions and upped the chances of the event building. The odds of having an El Nino event by this winter are now at 70%. If accurate this will bring a favorable end to the U.S. growing season. It is also likely that this will favor production in South America this coming year.

Analysts continue to take the U.S. corn crop rating and determine a final yield. Most now feel corn yield will top trend by 2%, which would be right at 180 bushels per acre. Predicting yield based on ratings has proven to be very difficult though, with no real correlation being made between the two. Still, the possibility of a larger corn crop is negating the strength we would normally be receiving from the elevated demand we are seeing.

China has started offering soybeans out of reserve for auction, same as they have with corn. So far, it is believed that demand for these soybeans has been limited. This is mainly from price, as the soybeans are being offered at an 80 cent per bushel premium to what imports can take place at. The simple fact that these soybeans are available has prevented buyers from coming to the United Sates for needs.

Market Movers: Weather Outlooks, Export Sales

For more information, you may contact Karl Setzer at 1-800-383-0003, or e-mail at The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Karl Setzer. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position.


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