AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market Retreats 3 Cents or More

Corn futures are trading 3 to 3 3/4 cents lower this morning. They saw mixed trade on Tuesday, with front months fractionally to 1 1/4 cents higher and deferred 2020 contracts 1 to 3 cents lower. Warmer weather in the forecast may help to progress a corn that is at a record slow growth pace. After the Monday close, NASS reported crop condition ratings declining 5 points to 349 on the Brugler500. Ratings in OH fell the sharpest, down 26 points, with MI (-16), IN (-13), ND (-13), MO (-8) and IL (-7) all reported lower. IA rose 6 points, with MN up 3 and NE 2 points higher. The average trade estimate for corn acreage ahead of Friday’s USDA report is 87.03 million corn acres for the US in 2019 according to a Bloomberg survey. USDA has stated that corn can be planted for silage on prevent plant acres as a “cover crop,” This could skew planted acreage higher when all is said and done but obviously will not be counted in the harvested acreage. AgRural pegs Brazil’s second corn crop at 19% harvested, well above the 5-year average at 7%.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Market Continues Tuesday Correction Overnight

Soybean futures are 3 to 3 3/4 cents lower this morning after closing 5 to 8 cents lower in most contracts on Tuesday. Soybean meal was down $1.90/ton, with soy oil 35 points lower. Long liquidation was seen in beans, with preliminary open interest dropping 19,266 contracts on Tuesday. The 7-day QPF shows drier weather across most growing regions, allowing for planting to pick up later this week. Most of the ECB is lagging, with IL 79% planted, IN @ 75%, OH 65% complete and MO at just 66% planted. Initial condition ratings showed all the 18 reported states other than NC and LA below the same week in 2018. Per wire surveys, US acreage for 2019 is expected to be around 84.68 million acres in this Friday’s report. Chinese soybean imports were down 24% in May from the same month last year at 7.36 MMT, with 977,024 MT from US. Hog herd liquidation there is reducing feed needs.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Market Mixed As Spreads Shift

Wheat futures are steady to 1 1/2 cents lower in the Minneapolis futures this morning. They other two markets are following corn and soybeans with losses of 2 1/2 to 3 3/4 cents. Wheat closed mixed on Tuesday, with HRS up 2 to 5 cents and Chicago contracts 1 to 2 1/2 cents lower. KC was mixed, anywhere from 1 1/4 cents lower to a penny higher. Winter wheat conditions in KS were down 5 points, with OK 12 lower. The only spring wheat states to see an improvement were SD and WA. Winter wheat in KS is just 5% harvested, with OK at 43% and TX 58% complete. Drier forecasts for the Southern Plains should allow for harvest to pick up this week. Published trade estimates have USDA putting all wheat acres at 45.65 million acres on Friday, with spring wheat at 12.59 million. The latter would be down 240,000 acres from March. Ending stocks estimates are hovering around 1.1 billion bushels.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Higher Tuesday, Awaiting Cash Trade Evidence

Live cattle futures ended 32.5 to 82.5 cents higher in most contracts on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures were 7.5 to 45 cents lower. The CME feeder cattle index was up a nickel @ $131.46 on June 24. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down a dime at $219.64 with Select boxes 86 cents lower @ $198.95. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 242,000 through Tuesday. That was 2,000 head larger than last week and 12,000 head more than the same week a year ago. There are a few $107 cash cattle bids out there, with a few asking prices at $110-111. USDA reported a few $180 dressed sales in NE.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Bounce From Oversold Readings

Lean Hog futures posted 50 cent to $1.95 gains on Turnaround Tuesday. Some light short covering was noted, with preliminary open interest down 522 contracts. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 49 cents from the previous day @ $78.65 on June 21. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.75 @ $75.58. The belly primal was down $9.47 after being up on Monday. The national average base hog price was down $1.33 on Tuesday afternoon at $72.18 per hundred pounds. Estimated weekly FI hog slaughter through Tuesday was 923,000 head. That was down 21,000 from the previous week after a slow Monday, but 42,000 more than the same week in 2018. Analysts expect NASS to show the June 1 hog herd at 75.052 million head this Thursday, up 3% from last year. Hogs kept for breeding are seen up 2.1% at 6.453 million, with marketing at 68.609 million head up 3.1% yr/yr.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Futures Higher as Dollar and Equities Firm

Cotton futures are 73 to 100 points higher this morning after a mixed close on Tuesday. The dollar index is stronger as are equity market futures. NASS indicated crop condition rating in TX dropped 9 points to 313 (Brugler500 index), with GA improving by 9. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg show 2019 cotton acreage ideas at an average of 13.74 million acres, just slightly below the March Intentions report. The Cotlook A index for June 24 was down 45 points from the previous day to 76.40 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) from USDA is 59.14 cents/lb through Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com