AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Continues to See Negative Pressure, Shrugging Off Slow Planting

Corn futures are trading 2 to 3 1/2 cents lower on Tuesday. Forecasts for the next week should allow for some field work to pick up across parts of the Corn Belt. Spillover from soybeans and a weaker ethanol market are also seen as pressure at midday. After the close on Monday, USDA indicated that just 6% of the US corn crop was planted, on the low end of estimates. None of the 18 reported states were shown ahead of their average. That 6% complete was just half of the average pace for this date but 1% faster than last year. Last year turned out OK on yield, so the market isn’t getting excited yet.

May 19 Corn closed at $3.51 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.60 1/2, down 3 cents,

Sep 19 Corn closed at $3.68, down 3 cents

Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.79 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Lower on Global Supply Pressure, Weakness in Bean Oil

Soybean futures are down a sharp 14 to 15 3/4 cents in most contracts at midday. Meal futures are $2.10/ton lower on Tuesday. May soy oil us 58 points in the red so far, weakening product values. Argentina’s soybean harvest is now thought to be 30% complete. Producers don’t like the price, with plenty of global competition as it comes out of the field. Brazil has harvested 92% of the crop in that country. Brazil’s Ag Ministry expects this soybean exports to be hurt by the spread of ASF in China. A stronger US dollar is also pressuring the market lower. The weekly Crop Progress report showed that just 1% of the US soybean crop has been planted as of Sunday, lagging the 2% average. It’s early.

May 19 Soybeans closed at $8.61 1/2, down 15 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.75, down 15 3/4 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $8.81, down 15 1/4 cents,

Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $8.96, down 13 3/4 cents,

May 19 Soybean Meal closed at $300.40, down $2.10,

May 19 Soybean Oil closed at $28.12, down $0.58

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Higher on Turnaround Tuesday

Wheat futures are showing steady to 4 3/4 cent gains in most contracts on Tuesday. After the Monday close, NASS showed winter wheat conditions improving 2% to 62% gd/ex and up 5 points on the Brugler500 index to 366. That’s the highest rating since 2010 for this date. The crop was 9% headed, vs. the 18% average for this date and 12% last year. The spring wheat crop was 5% planted. That was well below the 22% average but above 3% from last year. Taiwan purchased 109,175 MT of US wheat in their recent tender on Tuesday. SovEcon did trim their Russian wheat exports for 18/19 by 0.2 MMT to 34.9 MMT.

May 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.39, up 3 1/4 cents,

May 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.13, up 1 1/4 cents,

May 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.14, up 4 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Lower, Despite Lower in Beef Stocks at the End of March

Live cattle futures are mostly lower on Tuesday, with nearby April up a nickel. Feeder cattle futures are steady to $1.45 lower. The CME feeder cattle index was down 14 cents to $145.97 on April 19. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Tuesday morning. Choice boxes were up 25 cents at $234.73, with Select boxes 26 cents higher @ $222.90. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 114,000 head. The monthly Cold Storage report from NASS on Monday showed frozen beef stocks as of March 31 at 450.657 million pounds. That is down 4.92% from February and a 2.87% lower than last year.

Apr 19 Cattle closed at $128.550, up $0.050,

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $121.300, down $0.275,

Aug 19 Cattle closed at $118.350, down $0.425,

May 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.400, down $1.400

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $159.475, down $0.150

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $160.525, down $0.250

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Market News and Commentary

Lean Hog futures are posting marginal 15 to 55 cent gains on Tuesday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another 52 cents from the previous day @ $81.54 on April 19. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.30 higher in the Tuesday morning report, at $89.16. The butt and ham primals were reported lower. The national average base hog was $79.60, down 61 cents. Estimated FI hog slaughter for Monday was 324,000 head, as some plants experienced down time. Frozen pork stocks at the end of March were reported by USDA at 610.129 million pounds. That is slightly lower than the same month last year and a drop of 0.9% from February.

May 19 Hogs closed at $89.175, up $0.150,

Jun 19 Hogs closed at $94.150, up $0.375

Jul 19 Hogs closed at $98.525, up $0.550

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Down at Midday, Pressured by a Stronger Dollar

Cotton futures are down 29 to 90 points in most contracts on Tuesday, with pressure coming from strength in the US dollar. After Monday’s closing bell, USDA showed US cotton acreage 9% planted, a 2% increase from last week. That was even with the 5 year average and slow vs. the 10% last year. China is selling nearly 1 MMT of cotton from state reserves this year, starting on May 5 and running to Sept 30. The Cotlook A Index was up 50 points at 88.25 on April 18. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is 68.88, effective through Thursday.

May 19 Cotton closed at 76.290, down 90 points,

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 77.710, down 76 points

Oct 19 Cotton closed at 77.160, down 29 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com