Market Update; Friday, March 15th, 2019

Trade started the last day of the week on the positive side with soybeans leading the charge. Simple end of the week short covering is the primary source of this strength, but we are also seeing some concern over the availability of soybeans in the global market. While the actual soybean volume is more than adequate, we are seeing very few soybeans move into the supply line. This from global transit issues more than anything, but a hesitation to make sales at today’s values is also a factor. Advances are being capped by the breakdown in talks between the US and China that will be delayed until late April according to government sources.

Corn values are firm today which is good news given the lack of fresh news the complex has to work with. The US is missing out on corn sales given the current spread between our offerings and those from our competitors in the global market. Corn is being further pressured by news some buyers in the global market are tendering for feed wheat over corn at the present time. The growing possibility for at least some acres to shift from corn to alternative crops this spring is also supporting the complex this morning.

Soybeans are the well-defined leader so far today, but are having a hard time holding early advances. Early strength came from short covering, but a lack of follow through buying has tempered advances. The lack of trade issues being resolved between the US and China is also limiting soybean strength. There is also talk in the market that spring wheat acres may shift to soybeans this year, further pressuring the complex.

The wheat market is showing some strength from the same short covering the other commodities are benefitting from, but also from elevated demand. We continue to see tenders flow through which is showing us a solid build in demand. Global feeders have tendered for wheat over corn given the current price spread, which is giving the complex support. Advances are being held in check by the ample global wheat supply though, as Germany now claims wheat production this year will be up 19.4% from last year.

This commentary is the sole opinion of Karl Setzer. This is intended for informational purposes only and not to be used for specific trading recommendations. The information used to generate this commentary is gathered from a variety of sources believed to be accurate. If you have any questions or would like additional market information, feel free to contact Karl Setzer at 800.858.3738, extension 411, or at ksetzer@citizenselevator.com . You can also follow Karl on twitter; @ksetzergrains




 

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