Closing Comments; Friday, February 22nd, 2019

Export sales for weeks ending January 10th and February 14th were within the expected ranges for corn with both wheat and soybeans exceeding its expected ranges. Corn saw 238.4 million bushels in sales with soybeans seeing 240 million. Wheat came in at roughly 131 million bushels. China was again the largest buyer of soybeans. China has cut the amount of US soybeans purchases since last July and typically is the largest buyer of beans throughout our fall and winter.

The Ag Outlook’s balance sheets puts corn in a friendlier position with stocks to use predicted at 11 percent using a 92 million acre count and 176 yield estimate. On the demand side, feed is expected to increase roughly 125 million bushels. The quiet leader of the pack has been exports. Any hiccup along the road, could put corn in a rationing mode.

The soybean balance sheet shows a large 4 million acre decrease to 85 million acres. Couple this acreage decrease with a 49.5 bushel yield, and we cut the carryout down to 845 million bushel carryout, not much lower than our current estimate of 910 million bushels. Market analysts are hesitant to dip their toe in friendly waters until we get a definitive trade agreement. It is safe to say the acreage debate will be highly contested leading up to the March reports.

March Corn closed cent lower at $3.75 . March Soybeans finished 1 cent lower at $9.10 . March Chicago wheat closed 1 cents lower at $4.85.

For more information, you may contact Brock Beadle at 515-341-7040, or e-mail at bbeadle@maxyieldgrain.com. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Brock Beadle. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position.




 

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